In this special “Asia in Review” televised radio Broadcast, Hawaii television and radio host David Day is joined by special guests John Holman, the Senior U.S. Commercial Officer for Hawaii and the Pacific Islands and former APEC Ambassador Lauren Moriarity.

The program focuses on the accomplishments that the Hawaii APEC conference achieved from the perspective of business, but which most of the media missed entirely. This is the real backstory.

Ralph Cossa, the President of Pacific Forum, CSIS, engages with “Asia in Review” television host and commentator David Day in a lively discussion and analysis of the recent reforms and changes in Burma.

 

During the show,  Mr. Cossa’s discusses his interesting personal visit with Aung San Suu Kyi.

Join “Asia in Review” television host and commentator David Day in this heart-warming program uncovering the new life directions of 2 Hawaii students occasioned by a trip that they made to Vietnam sponsored by the Hawaii NGO, the Pacific and Asian Affairs Council.

The program aired in Hawaii and features Natasha Schultz, the high school program coordinator for PAAC, and students Brittaney Moorehead and Sierra Calihan.

This “Asia in Review” Hawaii television show probes the interesting nexus between international business and foreign policy/geopolitics.

Hosted by David Day, this program’s special guests are Mr. John Holman, the Senior U.S. Commercial Officer for the Hawaii and the Pacific Islands (U.S. Commercial Service, U.S. Dept of Commerce), and Mr. Michael Messina, Director of Development for the Asia-focused, foreign policy/geopolitical think tank, Pacific Forum, CSIS.

Counter-Insurgency: Is there a Strategy that Works, Really?

For nearly 400 years, the Philippines has faced on internal, ongoing insurgency of some kind. Just since WW II, these groups have included the HUKs,the New Peoples Liberation Army (NPA),The Abu Sayyaf, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), and even the Jemiah Islamiya out of Indonesia.

In this television program broadcast in Hawaii, David Day interviews Mr. Al Santoli, the CEO of Asia America Initiative, a non-profit NGO headquartered in Washington D. C. on the challenges these insurgencies pose for the Philippines. In this fascinating conversation, Mr. Santoli describes a unique, multi-generational counter-insurgency strategy that his foundation is now successfully conducting in the radical Muslim islands of the Southern Philippines.

Mr. Al Santoli has also been a successful peace mediator between the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the U.S. Military, and the radical Muslim groups in these islands.

Immediately following the death of Kim Jong Il, the U.S. and South Korean military forces went on alert simultaneously. This is the natural reflex on the tactical side to the perceived new instability on the Korean peninsula occasioned by the leadership transition in Pyongyang. This is a good, careful approach. There is, however, a strategic side to the Korean situation that also needs attention as well.

Setting aside the dark, doomsday potential for a collapse of the Regime in Pyongyang for a different discussion, what about the strategy for a hopeful future for North Korea? When the timing has been right, have we not seen former Communist regimes reinvent themselves and emerge with a hybrid of economic reforms that have worked reasonably well? Both China and Vietnam have moved successfully in direction economic liberalization and reform. Is there any hope for North Korea at all?

Jong Un with DPRK military leadership

In the past, it was often thought that North Korea’s Stalinist family dynasty and autocratic rule differed too much from the Communist Party oligarchies like that in Hanoi to allow a “Doi Moi”-like economic liberalization, such as we have seen in Vietnam, to take place. The current reality on the ground in North Korea is that Kim Jong Un is a young, likely more- impressionable leader with an unconsolidated power base. We need to remember that his Father had two decades to consolidate his own position and young Jong Un has barely had 2 years, if that. This all means that, notwithstanding his promotion this past September to a 4-star General (begrudgingly accepted in the Confucian military hierarchy by his fellow octogenarian 4-stars), Jong Un has a fragmented power base. His ability to lead and rule will require much more consensus-building and therein is the strategic opportunity for change.

Moving beyond the stumbling blocks of denuclearization on the peninsula, this change could necessarily include economic reforms which could be reinforced and encouraged by humanitarian assistance, sanction modification (following the Myanmar approach), and, in due course, economic assistance. This is the “Vietnam Model.” The key piece of this puzzle requires both technocrats and reform-minded leadership within the DPRK.

In Vietnam’s case, Hanoi, in the mid-1980′s had the benefit of a few brilliant economists who had a hand in the construction of the Party’s 1986 “Doi Moi” economic platform. The key architect was Dr. Nguyen Xuan Oanh, who came out of retirement as a former capitalist central banker under the defeated South Vietnamese regime and managed to turned himself into the Communist party’s favorite economist. I knew Dr. Oanh, a Harvard-educated economist. He was even South Vietnam’s Prime Minister for a few turbulent months in the coup-ridden 1960s. Somehow, after the fall of Saigon and eight months of house arrest, Oanh managed to persuade the communists that he was a technocrat and a patriot who had stayed on to serve his country. Rehabilitation allowed Oanh to become the architect of Vietnam’s “Doi Moi” economic reform platform in 1986. However, it was the combination of his education and prior government leadership that gave Dr. Oanh the political firepower with the Communist Party in Hanoi to listen and follow his direction for the future of the country.

So where is North Korea’s Dr. Oanh? This is the interesting piece of the puzzle that is difficult to see at this juncture. While it is early for North Korea’s own “Dr. Oanh” to emerge, the seeds for a Oanh-type economic reform leadership or expertise in North Korea already exist in the form of 2 groups: (1) during the 1990′s and prior, a number of North Korean elites were educated in economics in Australian universities before Australia shut down its North Korean visa program; and (2) there are a number of young, North Korean refugees that are currently studying economics in Seoul, the U.S. and the U.K., who are preparing themselves to assist in the North Korean “Doi Moi” in the future.

This “Vietnam Model” is a strategy that both Washington and Seoul need to encourage. It may well be North Korea’s only hope.

In this televised, “Asia in Review” Broadcast, David Day engages Taiwan expert Prof. William Sharp in a lively discussion about Taiwan’s historic background, democratic institutions and structure, strategic challenges with China (including the South China Sea dispute), and its delicate relationship with the United States.

Bill Sharp and David Day on “The Taiwan Success Story”

Myanmar sits between India and China, a key strategic position combined with extraordinary natural resources.

Historically, in its post-British colonial era, Myanmar has “danced” in its foreign policy and sought to maintain its neutrality, wary of foreigners. Myanmar’s dance continued throughout the Cold War as a strategy necessary to preserve its own sovereignty. This wariness extended to Western diplomats and China alike. However, as the General Than Shwe/Junta era began to take hold and the resulting U.S. sanctions began to bite, Myanmar “leaned” heavily towards China as its sanctions bypass route.

The new Thein Sein government started to shake the West with its political reforms and the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms also included legal changes that would now permit Aung San Suu Kyi to run for political office. Indeed, her party, the National League for Democracy, has seized upon this legal change, re-registered under the new law, and Aung San Suu Kyi herself has formally announced that she would run in the next elections.

Then there is the pushback against China commenced with the abrupt decision to suspend the construction of a controversial China-backed hydroelectric dam that would have flooded an area the size of Singapore. Given the magnitude of Chinese investment and influence in Myanmar, this has been a stunning move.

The question then becomes, what is the next step in Myanmar’s dance? That step will be heavily influenced by Myanmar’s bid to assume its leadership bid as ASEAN’s chair in 2014. However, Myanmar’s bid for the 2014 ASEAN chairmanship means that it will have to present itself as an ASEAN member and not China’s little client. In order to accomplish that by 2014, we are going to see a number of previously unthinkable reforms coming out of Naypyidaw. The notion that Suu Kyi will now run for election is but one example of the previously unthinkable.

Indonesia, interestingly, is playing a key role from its ASEAN leadership chair position, steering Myanmar in a reform-minded direction so as to position and prepare Myanmar for its own 2014 ASEAN chair. Coupled with Jakarta’s efforts, the current United States efforts on the” pivoting” front to re-engage with Asia, such as entering the East Asia Summit and cultivating stronger ties with Southeast Asia, also contains a strategy designed to encourage Myanmar into further reforms. To that end, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently dangled the bait that Myanmar would find a partner in the U.S. if further reforms were made. The possibility of removing sanctions and promises of cooperation will assist in expanding U.S. influence with Myanmar,and likely move the country into a more balanced relationship between the U.S. and China.

Myanmar took Clinton’s bait, Suu Kyi and her party are now planning to participate in the next elections, and Clinton herself is now “pivoting” and enroute to Myanmar. The winds are now shifting in the U.S./Myanmar relationship. New partners and new steps are now in play.

The China relationship is still out there. While there is a certain frostiness to the current relations between China and Myanmar, it must be remembered that Myanmar must live with China next door and its dance in the future will always need to maintain considerable weight on that foot.

This exchange between the newly-appointed U.S. Secretary of Commerce, John Bryson, and David Day took place during the APEC week in Honolulu in November of 2011. This particular conference was held at at the Foreign Trade Zone in Honolulu on November 10, 2011. Here, David lays out a series of suggested actions for the “new” U.S. Commerce Dept to undertake as a means of enhancing its support for business in Hawaii and the Pacific Islands. This video does not include a portion of the exchange in which Mr. Day is urging Commerce to focus on using Hawaii more often as a “gathering place” for critical meetings and conferences, like APEC, that involve business in the Asia-Pacific Region.

In this television show, David Day hosts the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the U.S Commercial Service, Mr. Suresh Kumar. David and Suresh engage in a lively discussion over the surprising improved performance of Hawaii business in international exports and business. During this program, the discussion also features specific Hawaii companies that have won national export awards, the role of the U.S. Commercial Service in supporting American business here in the Asia Pacific Region, and the business opportunities flowing to Hawaii business out of the 2011 APEC Conference in Honolulu.

Suresh Kumar, Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the U.S. Commercial Service .